Why Palantir Fell 8% Today

One of Palantir's worst days since August 2024

Welcome back to Daily Palantir!

Today, Palantir stock had it’s worst day in 2025 and worst day since August of 2024. Let’s get into what happened along with 2 new deals that were announced today.

Down 8%

Palantir fell below the $70 mark today. The drop occurred amid broader market weakness (the S&P was down 1% and Nasdaq down 2%), with investor sentiment also affected by recent commentary from Jim Cramer.

Jim Cramer is not the actual reason the stock fell, but it is annoying. 😂

The actual reason for the weakness today felt more about the macro to me…

Macro Data and Market Uncertainty

Fresh job market data shows there are 8 million job openings, which raises questions about rising prices and inflation. More jobs could mean more spending, which might push up prices. For a growth stock like Palantir, rising inflation and high interest rates can be a challenge, as they tend to hurt these kinds of shares.

Here is why this macro situation is hard to navigate for growth stocks like Palantir:

We got Job Openings in the US of 8M+. The market expected 7.5M. This means we have 500K more job openings than expected.

The 10-yr spiked to 4.7% on this news because we if have more jobs than expected…

- Inflation isn’t going to come down as easily since more people will have money to spend

- Rates can’t come down as easily because why would the Fed cut rates if the labor market is doing fine and plenty of jobs are available

HOWEVER, this jobs data could be fake. We had massive revisions over the past few months to JOLTS and if we get more revisions in a few months, then the labor market MIGHT actually be very weak and cuts SHOULD be taking place.

On top of that, today the Eurozone inflation came in at 2.4%, the highest since July 2024.

We get US CPI next week and if that number is higher + labor market has plenty of jobs…we get into a scenario that we were in for the majority of 2024: good news (more jobs) ends up being bad news because we have to fight inflation.

This delays the potential for rate cuts by months. We didn’t get a cut till September last year and the market was able to continue going higher with the expectation that cuts were coming.

Now, we may end up having to continue waiting for the 10yr to come down ALONG with the dollar to come down because until they come down, we are likely not going to see inflation or mortgage rates meaningfully come down.

2025 has been a year so far where most dips have got bought, I know it’s early, but it is looking like 2024 from that angle.

Even today, the JOLTs data led to a selloff along with Trump’s speech and now the dip is being bought…

We’re going to need to see inflation come down but it will all depend on CPI, if these job numbers are real (we get private payrolls this week) and if the market is ready to continue pricing in more cuts.

This economic backdrop makes people wonder how Palantir will do moving forward. If prices keep rising, companies might hold off on spending, which could slow Palantir’s growth. High interest rates also make borrowing more expensive, possibly affecting business investments in tech. Each new piece of economic news adds to the uncertainty, leading investors to keep a close watch on how it might affect Palantir.

There’s also a concern about mixed economic signals and potential ups and downs. Some worry that not all reported job openings are real, which might prompt the Fed to change its plans too late. For Palantir, these factors add to the uncertainty surrounding its stock. Investors are trying to balance hope for long-term gains with the reality of a shaky economic situation, making decisions carefully.

So, today’s selloff was more around the macro uncertainties that exist (and aren’t going away anytime soon) along with Palantir’s stretched valuation being a reason for investors to lock in profits. It is relatively normal and healthy to me. Could their be more pain? Yes, but investors could come in to buy the dip. Time will tell and ultimately Palantir’s earnings will determine where the stock goes, but right now the macro headwinds seems to be more of the reason for why we are seeing a selloff in the stock.

2 New Deals We Learned About

Palantir is making moves in defense and construction sectors. Its system, Nordic Warden, is helping NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force keep an eye on the Baltic Sea for threats. This work in defense shows Palantir’s growing role with government agencies and its efforts to branch out into new areas. Nordic Warden, the name of the software that is run by Palantir, uses AI to spot ships and figure out the risk each vessel poses when it enters key areas.

These deals show that Palantir is building strong ties with key organizations. Working closely with groups like NATO means Palantir can prove its tech in tough environments. Winning such contracts gives the company steady work and helps build trust with important partners. This kind of groundwork can lead to more projects down the line.

From Palantir’s head of UK:

In construction, Palantir teamed up with EllisDon, a global firm, to use its AI to make building projects run smoother.

From their PR:

EllisDon Corporation announces it has partnered with Palantir Technologies, a leading data analytics company. These efforts made by EllisDon will deploy operational AI and enhance the company's Insights and Analytics team's capabilities. The collaboration between the two companies began in Summer 2024.

The partnership has enabled EllisDon to leverage Palantir's advanced data analytics and AI platform to optimize its operations, increase efficiency, and drive growth. CIO of EllisDon, Brandon Milner said, "We are thrilled to finally announce this agreement with Palantir Technologies. This partnership has helped us achieve significant progress in our long-term strategic goals and positioned the company for continued success in the highly competitive construction technology industry."

Prior to the deployment of Artificial Intelligence tools, it was necessary for EllisDon to build-out a modernized, cleanly structured, and operationally prepared data environment. EllisDon’s Digital & Data Engineering team has been working on this transition since 2010, turning a legacy construction data environment into a fully modernized one just in time for artificial intelligence to become viable for deployment. “EllisDon’s Data Infrastructure is absolutely one of the best, if not the best, in the industry,” said Ezequiel Machabanski, VP Insights & Analytics at EllisDon. “When I joined EllisDon in Spring of 2023, I was very impressed with how far along their Data Infrastructure had already come.”

Overall, we are seeing further diversification of Palantir into various sectors and the long term thesis is strong even with volatility, which is inevitable in a name like Palantir given the stock was up massively in 2024.

That’s it for today - see you tomorrow!

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